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The Dancing Raccoon

In the break hour of thy day

A raccoon has come to play

Lured by black gold

Why is this fucking Raccoon so bold

Our battle was to be at bay

Because this Raccoon has come to play

Under the moon

He dances around

Quickly leaping and prancing across the ground

The toys in this yard are used all-day

For this, Raccoon has come to play

Its fun playing alone

But that's till others are known

This Raccoon has come for me

Trying to get closer, you best believe

It gets to a point I'm blown away

But the Raccoon is just so gay

For this, Raccoon has come to play

I starting to feel a little scared

But this feeling is unshared

This Raccoon is curious so

I hold the shovel, ready

Ready for the deathblow

It gets to a point I'm done fooling around

It is time to put my foot down

I grab the hose and start to spray

But this is at the Raccoon's dismay

and now he is afraid

For this, Raccoon has come to play

And all I see is a stray

What a sad day

The Fork: PID

The discovery of certain pieces of information in people's lives set them on a completely different path than the one they are currently on. Instead of seeing in black and white, they are to see the world differently, in color. An Enlightenment of such happened a few years back when I discovered the proportional–integral–derivative controller or PID for short. This device uses the mathematical equation below y

What this does in everyday language is let you control one variable in response to another, and hopefully, that control invokes a reaction that changes the original variable. The image to the left gives a basic visual graph of how the PID will slowly figure out optimal for your system. Many different issues can arise when using a PID and how they work is more complicated than the 30min that I want to devote to this post, but the general idea is that they give you control of an element when you are not present.

PIDs opened up worlds for me as I realized that control of certain elements was easier than I knew before. I felt like an avatar able to bend nature to my wishes. An example of how I use a PID in my life is having a grow tent setup and wanting to control the humidity. In the grow tent, the PID turns on and off the humidifier in response to the humidity level. This automation is just on/off, automation can be basic, but for so long, i always thought it was so complex. The part that is most intriguing to me is that if your system needs to remain at a certain level, the formula figures it out, so you're not paying and overheating or not giving your system enough of something.

These are used a lot in beer making and manufacturing but having a few different ones around the house makes it so that you don't need to be intimidated by doing things but intrigued by the chance to figure it out in a scientific way.

Phycological Cycle

The Investor Phycology Cycle is one of the most basic cycles that can have a significant impact on the return of your portfolio, if used right. This cycle is only possible because people are not always rational, and emotions have a substantial effect on an investor outlook of the current and future market conditions. This cycle is one that moves back and forth between fear and greed. The different stages of the phycological cycle may be clear to some who play attention but since this cycle continues to happen it may be harder than expected to go against the herd. The Investor psychological cycle is shown in the graph to the left,

like a pendulum it too has a rational phycological point which it spends very little time. This is due to people tendency to overreact and burn past a sensible correction. In the stages of panic, fear, denial, and dismissal, investors slowly become more and more risk-averse and in the stages of Caution, Confidence, Enthusiasm, and Greed investors become less risk-averse and don’t want to miss out on a good return.

How am I able to determine where we are out in the Phycological Cycle? When investing you are looking for future gain. Since we are unable to predict what will happen in the future, there is a degree of risk on all investments. But not all risks are the same, and due to these differences in risk, there needs to be a difference in compensation for investors to invest in riskier assets. This relationship is represented in graph two and is called the Capital Markets Line and shows the relationship between a assets risk and the amount of return they would have to get investors to be enticed into buying given the assets risk. The slope of this line helps us determine where we are at in the phycological cycle. The way of doing this is by determining the slope of the line. When investors are confident about the market and making a decision based on greed, they will be less risk-averse and willing to receive less compensation for a given amount of risk. Thus, the slope of the line will flatten. The opposite to this is when investors are in fear and risk intolerant, due to this an investor will need to be compensated heavily to get them to invest. Due to this, the CAPM line will have a steeper slope. Looking into the slope of the line on any given day won’t help you figure out how investors are feeling. What you need to do is check how the slope of he capital markets line changes over time. As the slope gets flatter you will know that investors are becoming more risk tolerant and you should start being concerned. The opposite would be true if you noticed the slope of the line become steeper.

When investing, knowing what the investor phycology of the market is can help you determine if investors are not worried about risk and pushing up asset price or if they are risk-averse and prices are falling. This knowledge can help you ship the probably distribution into your favor and take you returns to exceptional.